Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction Using Machine Learning - Final Year Project with Source Code
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Machine Learning

Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction Using Machine Learning

The Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction Using Machine Learning system is a comprehensive machine learning solution that predicts corporate bankruptcy using financial ratios and company metrics. This project is ideal for B.Tech, MCA, CSE, and engineering students as their final year project. It implements LightGBM and XGBoost with SMOTE for class imbalance, achieving 96.7% accuracy and 0.991 ROC-AUC.

The system utilizes the Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) Corporate Bankruptcy Dataset containing 6,819 company records with 95 financial features, including profitability ratios, leverage indicators, and market metrics. It provides early warning capabilities for financial risk management, enabling investors, creditors, and regulators to identify at-risk companies proactively. Feature importance analysis reveals that profitability ratios, particularly ROA, Net Value Per Share, and Operating Gross Margin, are the strongest predictors of bankruptcy.

Python 3.8+ Machine Learning LightGBM XGBoost Scikit-learn SMOTE Pandas NumPy Matplotlib Seaborn Flask HTML/CSS/JS
Key Features:
  • Multi-Model Bankruptcy Prediction
  • XGBoost (96.7% Accuracy)
  • LightGBM (95.3% Accuracy)
  • Leak-free SMOTE Oversampling
  • Feature Selection (SelectKBest)
  • Interactive Visualizations
  • Real-time Bankruptcy Predictions
  • Model Performance Comparison
  • Feature Importance Analysis
  • Flask Web Application

Algorithms Used

⚡ LightGBM
Gradient boosting with leaf-wise growth, n_estimators=300, max_depth=5
🎯 Accuracy: 95.3%
🔥 XGBoost
Regularized gradient boosting, n_estimators=300, max_depth=4, scale_pos_weight
🎯 Accuracy: 96.7%
🔄 SMOTE Oversampling
Synthetic minority oversampling applied leak-free inside CV folds
📊 CV AUC: 0.9885
📊 Feature Selection
SelectKBest with ANOVA F-statistic from 95 financial features
📊 Top Feature: ROA

Methodology & Workflow

1 Data Collection
6,819 company records with 95 financial features
2 Data Preprocessing
Cleaning, scaling, feature selection (SelectKBest)
3 Exploratory Data Analysis
Statistical analysis and visualization of patterns
4 Model Training
LightGBM and XGBoost with leak-free SMOTE
5 Model Evaluation
Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-Score, ROC-AUC
6 Web Deployment
Flask web app with real-time risk assessment

Model Performance Comparison

Metric LightGBM XGBoost Best
Test Accuracy 95.3% 96.7% XGBoost
Test Precision 95.3% 96.7% XGBoost
Test Recall 95.3% 96.7% XGBoost
Test F1-Score 95.2% 96.7% XGBoost
F1-Bankrupt Class 87.5% 92.2% XGBoost
Test ROC-AUC 98.5% 99.1% XGBoost

Project Package Includes:

Complete Source Code Documentation (50+ pages) Video Tutorial TEJ Bankruptcy Dataset Flask Web App Model Files (Pickle) Visualizations 24/7 Expert Support
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Complete Source Code
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