Financial Risk Analysis and Loan Default Prediction Using Machine Learning - Final Year Project with Source Code
Financial Risk Analysis and Loan Default Prediction Using Machine Learning - Complete Project Demo Video
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Machine Learning

Financial Risk Analysis and Loan Default Prediction Using Machine Learning

The Financial Risk Analysis and Loan Default Prediction Using Machine Learning system is a comprehensive machine learning solution that predicts loan default risk using Lasso and Ridge regression models with SMOTE for class imbalance handling. This project is ideal for B.Tech, MCA, CSE, and engineering students as their final year project. It uses regularized linear models with leak-free cross-validation and SMOTE to achieve robust credit risk assessment.

The system leverages 29 engineered features including credit score, applicant income, loan amount, debt-to-income ratio, employment type, marital status, and derived financial ratios like loan-to-income and debt-to-income ratio. It provides interactive visualizations, feature importance analysis, model comparison, and real-time loan default prediction to help financial institutions make informed lending decisions.

Python 3.8+ Machine Learning Lasso Regression Ridge Regression SMOTE Scikit-learn imbalanced-learn Pandas NumPy Matplotlib Seaborn Flask HTML/CSS/JS
Key Features:
  • Binary Loan Default Prediction
  • Ridge Regression (F1: 0.5292)
  • Lasso Regression (F1: 0.4679)
  • SMOTE for Class Imbalance
  • Leak-Free Cross-Validation
  • Feature Importance Analysis
  • Real-time Default Prediction
  • Model Performance Comparison
  • Interactive Visualizations
  • Flask Web Application

Algorithms Used

📊 Ridge Regression
L2 regularization, handles multicollinearity, retains all features
🎯 F1: 0.5292
📉 Lasso Regression
L1 regularization, automatic feature selection, sparse solutions
🎯 F1: 0.4679
🔄 SMOTE
Synthetic Minority Over-sampling for handling class imbalance
📊 k-neighbors: 5
🔍 3-Fold Leak-Free CV
Cross-validation with SMOTE inside each fold
📊 Ridge: 0.5018 ± 0.006

Methodology & Workflow

1 Data Loading & Inspection
Financial dataset with 26,000 loan records
2 Data Preprocessing
Cleaning, encoding, outlier removal, feature scaling
3 Feature Engineering
Total income, loan-to-income, debt-to-income ratios
4 Model Training
Lasso & Ridge Regression with SMOTE pipelines
5 Model Evaluation
Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-Score, ROC-AUC, 3-fold CV
6 Web Deployment
Flask web app for real-time loan default prediction

Model Performance Comparison

Metric Ridge Regression Lasso Regression Best
Accuracy 0.4900 0.4329 Ridge
Precision 0.6455 0.6361 Ridge
Recall 0.4900 0.4329 Ridge
F1-Score 0.5292 0.4679 Ridge
ROC-AUC 0.5031 0.4981 Ridge
CV Mean (3-Fold) 0.5018 0.5054 Lasso

Project Package Includes:

Complete Source Code Documentation (50+ pages) Video Tutorial Dataset (26,000 records) Flask Web App Model Files (Pickle) Visualizations 24/7 Expert Support
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9,999
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Complete Source Code
Documentation & PPT
Video Tutorial
24/7 Expert Support

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